Presidential Elections State-by-State: Hardening Partisanship

by Katherine Sicienski, Rob Richie // Published August 1, 2011

In recent decades presidential election outcomes have become more predictable in most states to the point that only a small minority of states are expected to be swing states in 2012. Due to the winner-take-all rule used by nearly all states (meaning a state awards all its electoral votes to the popular vote winner of that state), swing states receive much more campaign attention than their non-competitive counterparts.

The table below provides a state-by-state review of presidential outcomes and competitiveness. It shows how some states have not been competitive for than a half-century and how most states now have a degree of partisan imbalance that makes them highly unlikely to be in a swing state position in 2012. We provide state-by-state data both as a table and in map form. Additional information is available for download in pdf and Excel formats.

Highlighted Findings:

  • Number of States Won by Same Party, 2000-2008 = 41
  • Number of States Won by Same Party, 1992-2008 = 32
  • Number of States Won Only by Republican Party, 1980-2008 = 13
  • Number of States Won Only by Democratic Party, 1992-2008 = 19
  • Number of Safe Democratic States Not Swing State since 1988 = 9
  • Number of Safe Republican States Not Swing State since 1988 = 15


    • Definitions:

  • "Battleground state": A state with a margin of victory less than 6% in a given election
  • "Swing state": A state with partisanship rating between 47% and 53% in a given election
  • "Partisanship":  A state's partisanship rating based on its deviation from the national partisan division between the major parties in a given presidential election

    •  

    State

    Last Year:

    Swing State

    Last Year:

    Battleground

    Last Year Won by Party 

    That Lost State in 2008

    # of Elections 

    In a Row

    Won by Same Party
    Alabama 1984 1980 1976 8
    Alaska 1972 1968 1964 11
    Arizona 1952 1996 1996 3
    Arkansas 2000 2000 1996 3
    California 1996 1988 1988 5
    Colorado 2008 1992 2004 1
    Connecticut 1992 1988 1988 5
    Delaware 1992 1980 1988 5
    District of Columbia (never) (never) (never) 12
    Florida 2008 2008 2004 1
    Georgia 1992 2008 1992 4
    Hawaii 1992 1980 1984 6
    Idaho 1948 1964 1964 11
    Illinois 1988 1988 1988 5
    Indiana 1984 2008 2004 1
    Iowa 2008 2004 2004 1
    Kansas 1988 1992 1964 11
    Kentucky 1992 1996 1996 3
    Louisiana 1996 1992 1996 3
    Maine 2000 2000 1988 5
    Maryland 1988 1988 1988 5
    Massachusetts 1956 1984 1984 6
    Michigan 2004 2004 1988 5
    Minnesota 2008 2004 1972 9
    Mississippi 1976 1996 1976 8
    Missouri 2004 2008 1996 3
    Montana 1992 2008 1992 4
    Nebraska 1912 1964 1964 11
    Nevada 2008 2004 2004 1
    New Hampshire 2008 2004 2000 2
    New Jersey 1992 1992 1988 5
    New Mexico 2004 2004 2004 1
    New York 1976 1988 1984 6
    North Carolina 1984 2008 2004 1
    North Dakota 1988 1976 1964 11
    Ohio 2008 2008 2004 1
    Oklahoma 1976 1976 1964 11
    Oregon 2000 2004 1984 6
    Pennsylvania 2008 2004 1988 5
    Rhode Island 1956 1984 1984 6
    South Carolina 1960 1996 1976 8
    South Dakota 1988 1996 1964 11
    Tennessee 2000 2000 1996 3
    Texas 1988 1996 1976 8
    Utah 1948 1912 1964 11
    Vermont 1988 1988 1988 5
    Virginia 2008 1996 2004 1
    Washington 2000 2000 1984 6
    West Virginia 1972 1988 1996 3
    Wisconsin 2004 2004 1984 6
    Wyoming 1956 1992 1964 11